Susie & Beth

The RICS house price balance, which measures the difference between the percentage of surveyors seeing rises and falls in home prices, fell to -69 for September, slightly worse than the -68 recorded in August. A greater proportion of surveyors are reporting falling UK residential property prices than at any time since after the financial crisis, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) reported this morning. UK house prices are falling at the fastest extent since 2009, after the financial crisis, a new poll of the country’s surveyors has found. The Bank of England’s latest credit conditions report, just released, shows that losses and default rates on secured loans to households increased in Q2, and were expected to increase in Q3. Shelter (ie housing costs) accounting for over half of the increase, while high motor fuel prices also added to inflation. US inflation was higher than expected last month, which may dampen hopes that interest rates have peaked on that side of the Atlantic.

It blamed “ever-rising interest rates” for dampening consumer demand, as well as bad weather last month and ongoing disruption on the UK railways. The survey of purchasing managers at UK companies found that growth in activity levels and new work both slowed last month, indicating a drop in demand. Data provider S&P Global reports that growth in the services sector slowed last month, to the slowest since February. The move shows the Bank continues to fight inflation, which dropped to 7.9% in June – four times over its target of 2%. The Bank of England’s policymakers were divided over where to set UK interest rates today. The Bank of England believes Rishi Sunak is on track to hit his target of halving inflation by the end of the year.

• So if you put £100 into a savings account with a 1% interest rate, you’d have £101 a year later.
• Further, a split in the rate hike voting composition, with more MPC members leaning towards a 50 bps hike than the previous meeting, will be viewed as dovish.
• Bailey and BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill have instead focused on the risk of inflation persistence that is not captured in the central forecast.
• Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to hold a post-monetary policy decision press conference at 1230GMT.
• The central bank’s forecasts on growth and inflation outlook may not hold much relevance.

Bailey and BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill have instead focused on the risk of inflation persistence that is not captured in the central forecast. Most economists polled by Reuters this week see rates going up to 5.25% from 5% next week and peaking at 5.75%, but for many the decision is finely balanced. The Bank’s governor, Andrew Bailey, who backed the quarter-point increase, said the MPC’s efforts meant inflation was on course to fall towards its 2% target.

Any reaction in the GBP/USD pair to the BoE policy announcements, however, could be quickly reversed during Governor Bailey’s press conference. Back in June, the BoE surprised markets with a 50 bps rate hike, as against expectations of a quarter percentage points increase. Two policymakers, Silvana Tenreyro and Swati Dhingra, voted to keep the policy rate on hold at 4.50%. Futures markets have priced in only a 12% chance of a rate hike in November and 26% in December, both significantly lower than on Friday, when a surprisingly robust jobs report was released.

Current Bank Rate

Investing.com – European stock markets traded higher Thursday, helped by signs of U.K. Growth ahead of the release of key U.S. consumer inflation data which could provide monetary policy clues. If rates fall and you have a loan or mortgage, your interest payments may get cheaper. If interest rates fall, it’s cheaper for households and businesses to increase the amount they borrow but it’s less rewarding to save.

Should the BoE announce an unexpected 50 bps rate lift-off, it would be an outright dovish outcome, leaving no stones unturned for GBP bears to take over command. There are enough reasons to justify an outsized move by the Old Lady this ‘Super Thursday’, especially with tight labor market conditions allowing the bank the leeway to go big to bring down raging inflation. The UK annualized Consumer Prices Index (CPI) surged by 10.1% in September when compared to August’s 9.9% while outpacing estimates of a 10.0% print, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). If the BOE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises its benchmark lending rate it is positive, or bullish, for the GBP. Likewise, if the BOE has a dovish view on the UK economy and keeps the ongoing benchmark rate the same or cuts the rate it is seen as negative, or bearish. Average regular earnings growth, excluding bonuses, remained at a record high of 7.8 per cent in the three months to July compared to the same period last year, the ONS said.

What does the Bank of England do and how does it impact the Pound?

Escalating geopolitical tensions ahead of the weekend weigh on T-bond yields and provide a boost to XAU/USD, which remains on track to gain nearly 5% this week. Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. However, in recent months the BoE has placed less emphasis on its medium-term forecast.

Thiru says high interest rates are hurting growth, meaning the UK economy will remain “uncomfortably close to recession” into 2024. As reported at 6.49am, Pill’s fellow MPC member Swati Dhingra believes that only a quarter of the impact of those rate rises has actually been felt. “Knowing that our customers continue to navigate a cost-of-living crisis, we absorbed significant cost increases to mitigate price rises as much as possible, investing in promotions, special offers, and, for the first time, an Easter sale. It is understood that the cost cutting plan is focused on the group’s US business and will not affect plans in the UK where Boots sales rose 12.5% for the year helped by high inflation, a 4% increase in visitors to stores and strong growth online. Gold extended its daily rally and climbed above $1,920 for the first time in over two weeks on Friday.

UK lenders expect rise in loan defaults

The MPC voted by a majority of 5–4 to maintain the rate, while four members preferred to increase the bank rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 5.5%. The economy has been grappling with high inflation and borrowing costs but has so far managed to skirt recession. Britain’s economy could shrink this quarter and risks falling into a recession, as a purchasing managers’ survey on Wednesday showed a slump in factory output and broader weakness in the face of higher interest rates.

The weekender: The middle east crisis takes center stage

But they can’t pay less than 0% on savings or people might not deposit any money with them. However, economists have told i “exceptionally strong” wage growth data means another rise in interest rates next week is more likely than not. But they suspect that the BoE is close to ending its cycle of interest rate rises which began back in December 2021 (when it raised Bank rate from 0.1% to 0.25%). Last week, Bloomberg reported that advisers to Chancellor vintage fx of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt are increasingly concerned that the Bank of England risks raising interest rates too much in the coming months, triggering a recession. Britain’s fresh produce industry had warned that the plan risks further pushing up food prices – potentially undermining the government’s push to bring down inflation. They said estimated additional annual costs stemming from import charges would have to be passed on to consumers.

More rate hikes will hurt millions of people, they warn, while the big banks rake in billions of pounds in profits. Services price inflation, however, is projected to remain elevated at close to its current rate in the near term. The financial markets lowered their forecasts for the peak in UK interest rate to below 5.75%. Swati Dhingra, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, has told the BBC that only around a quarter of the impact of the Bank’s 14 interest rates rises have fed through to the economy. Speaking in Marrakech, where the IMF and the World Bank are holding their annual meeting, Huw Pill pointed out that much of the Bank’s earlier rate hikes have yet to “come though” and affect the real economy. Wage growth excluding bonuses held at an annual rate of 7.3% in the three months to May, the joint highest since records began in 2001.

QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. It’s a ‘Super Thursday’, as the central bank’s policy announcements will be accompanied by the Minutes of the meeting and the United Kingdom’s (UK) updated how to get a remote customer service job economic projections, followed by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference. She is likely to be more hawkish than Tenreyro, and wrote this month that it would be “a mistake” for central bankers to assume inflation would automatically return to pre-pandemic levels. Consumer price inflation dropped to 7.9% in June from 8.7% in July, a far bigger decline than markets had expected and one that brought it in line with what the BoE forecast in early May, when markets expected rates to peak at around 5%.

Financial stability

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commentary and analysis you can trust. Two contributors increased by a quarter-point and the remaining 37 kept predictions unchanged.

What are interest rates?

This would allow the MPC to wait for new data to get a clearer picture of the economic and inflation situation before the next meeting in November, he adds. Reuters, the news and media division of Thomson Reuters, is the world’s largest multimedia news provider, reaching billions of people worldwide every day. Reuters provides business, financial, national and international news to professionals just2trade review via desktop terminals, the world’s media organizations, industry events and directly to consumers. When asked if inflation would fall to the BoE’s target without a recession, 16 economists who answered were equally divided between “likely” and “unlikely”. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices and a key measure of price growth closely monitored by the BoE, remained stickier.